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Doing what's right for Colorado
Ken with a Strong Lead in Latest Poll
07/22/10
July 22, 2010
MAGELLAN DATA AND MAPPING STRATEGIES
Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies are pleased to present this executive summary of an automated survey of 759 likely Colorado Republican primary voters. The interviews were conducted on July 21st. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.5% at the 95% confidence interval. The survey results are weighted to reflect past Republican primary turnout demographics from the 2008, 2006, 2004 and 2002 general election cycles.
US Senate GOP Primary Ballot Test
Among likely Republican primary voters in Colorado, Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck leads former Lt. Governor Jane Norton by 9 points, 46% to 37%, and 17% remain undecided. Since our last survey on June 8th Ken Buck’s support has increased by 4 points from 42% to 46%, and Jane Norton’s support has increased by 5 points, from 32% to 37%. Among male voters Buck leads Norton by 11 points, 49% to 38%, among women Buck leads by 6 points, 42% to 36%. The table below shows the ballot test results by age and gender and voter subgroups. The ballot test trend line can be found on the next page.
Republican Primary US Senate Ballot Test July 21st by Voter Subgroup
|
Candidate |
All Voters |
Men |
Wom |
18- 34 |
35- 44 |
45- 54 |
55- 64 |
65+ |
|
Buck Lead |
+9 |
+11 |
+7 |
+20 |
+24 |
+5 |
+9 |
+5 |
|
Buck |
46% |
49% |
42% |
50% |
52% |
43% |
46% |
45% |
|
Norton |
37% |
38% |
36% |
30% |
28% |
38% |
37% |
40% |
|
Undecided |
17% |
13% |
22% |
20% |
21% |
19% |
17% |
16% |
Candidate Image Ratings
“Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ken Buck/Jane Norton?”
Among all voters 52% have a favorable opinion of Ken Buck and 23% have an unfavorable opinion, for an image ratio of 2.2 to 1. Among men Ken Buck’s image rating is 49% favorable and 25% unfavorable. Among women 47% have a favorable opinon of him and 21% an unfavorable image. Jane Norton’s image ratio is 1.3 to 1, with 45% of voters having a favorable opinion of her and 34% having an unfavorable opinion. Among men, 45% have a favorable opinion of Jane Norton and 36% have an unfavorable opinion. Among women 41% have a favorable opinion of her and 33% have an unfavorable opinion.
Voter Opinion of Who is Running a More Negative Campaign
“Based on what you have seen, read and heard, which candidate do you believe has run a more negative campaign? Jane Norton, Ken Buck or do you think both candidates have run an equally negative campaign?”
Equally negative................. 48%
Jane Norton................. 35%
Ken Buck................. 17%
We measured voter perception of which campaign is perceived to be running a more negative campaign. Just under half of all voters responded that both candidates are running equally negative campaigns, 35% believe Jane Norton is running a more negative campaign, and 17% believe Ken Buck is running a more negative campaign.
Survey Methodology
This survey was conducted using automated telephone touch tone technology. The sample was randomly drawn from a Colorado voter file among households containing at least one registered Republican voter. The response data was weighted to reflect past Republican primary voting demographics from the 2008, 2006, 2004 and 2002 election cycles. The 759 interviews of likely Republican primary voters were conducted on Wednesday night, July 21st between 5:30pm and 8:00pm. This survey has a margin of error of 3.5% at the 95 percent confidence interval.